Troy’s points of margin with Tucker Kilcrease and without Tucker Kilcrease
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 1.6 points over with Tucker Kilcrease and 0.2 points under without Tucker Kilcrease over its last 25 games, 9 games against 14. The plain averages are 2.0 and -1.0, a difference of 3.0. Expected was 3.8 points higher with Tucker Kilcrease than without Tucker Kilcrease. All 3 ranked opponents were without Tucker Kilcrease. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tucker Kilcrease.
Tucker Kilcrease, quarterback: 1,789 passing yards, 268 pass attempts and 153 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Tucker Kilcrease vs without Tucker Kilcrease is about what you’d expect.
A +3.0 difference in points of margin with Tucker Kilcrease vs without Tucker Kilcrease is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 8 | -11.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisiana | L | -21 | -7.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 32 | 17.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 18 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Clemson | L | -11 | -19.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | -21 | -5.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 4 | 3.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 7 | 6.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas State | W | 7 | -10.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 23 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsLouisiana | W | 12 | 6.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | L | -13 | 9.3 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | -33 | -13.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 12 | 14.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 10 | -2.8 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | -17 | -22.9 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State (neutral) | L | -4 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 3 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -10 | -34.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | -11 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | W | 21 | 6.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Louisiana | L | -27 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana Monroe | L | -7 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @James Madison | W | 3 | -19.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls, Alabama State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.