Troy’s points of margin with Goose Crowder and since Goose Crowder’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 4.7 points under with Goose Crowder and 22.5 points over since Goose Crowder’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -2.0 and 3.0, a difference of 5.0. Expected was 19.0 points higher with Goose Crowder than since Goose Crowder’s last game. All 4 home games were with Goose Crowder. All 5 day games were with Goose Crowder. All 4 nonconference games were with Goose Crowder.
Goose Crowder, quarterback: 1,162 passing yards, 183 pass attempts and 102 completions in 7 games this season.
One game since Goose Crowder’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Goose Crowder
−4.7
since Goose Crowder’s last game
+22.5
-20020
plain
-2.0
3.0
-20020
The games
with Goose Crowdersince Goose Crowder’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 3 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -10 | -34.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | -11 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 21 | 6.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | -27 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | -7 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ James Madison | W | 3 | -19.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Alabama State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.