Troy’s pass attempts with Tucker Kilcrease and without Tucker Kilcrease
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 3.1 pass attempts under with Tucker Kilcrease and 0.3 pass attempts under without Tucker Kilcrease in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 31.0 and 28.4, a difference of 2.6. Expected was 5.5 pass attempts higher with Tucker Kilcrease than without Tucker Kilcrease. All 4 home games were without Tucker Kilcrease. All 5 day games were without Tucker Kilcrease. All 4 nonconference games were without Tucker Kilcrease.
Tucker Kilcrease, quarterback: 252 passing yards, 46 pass attempts and 23 completions in 4 games this season, 44% of Troy’s pass attempts in those games.
One game with Tucker Kilcrease is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Tucker Kilcrease
−3.1
without Tucker Kilcrease
−0.3
01020
plain
31.0
28.4
203040
The games
with Tucker Kilcreasewithout Tucker Kilcrease
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 24 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 29 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 32 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 49 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 21 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 26 | 30.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 18 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ James Madison | W | 31 | 34.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Alabama State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.