Toledo’s third-down conversion rate with Connor Walendzak and since Connor Walendzak’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 1.6 percentage points under with Connor Walendzak and 15.1 percentage points over since Connor Walendzak’s last game over its last 25 games, 21 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.9% and 50.0%, a difference of 11.1%. Both neutral-site games were with Connor Walendzak. All 10 nonconference games were with Connor Walendzak. Both bowl and playoff games were with Connor Walendzak.
Connor Walendzak, running back: 613 rushing yards, 131 carries and 20 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
One game since Connor Walendzak’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Connor Walendzak
−1.6%
since Connor Walendzak’s last game
+15.1%
-20%0%20%
plain
38.9%
50.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Connor Walendzaksince Connor Walendzak’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Ohio | L | 30.8% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Akron | L | 35.3% | 36.4% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 18.8% | 33.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 41.2% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 41.7% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 27.8% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAkron | W | 37.5% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 23.1% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 53.8% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 37.5% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 64.3% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 50.0% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 30.0% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | W | 33.3% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 30.8% | 32.5% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 12.5% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 61.5% | 43.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 53.3% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Ball State | W | 44.4% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 21.4% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 38.5% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | W | 50.0% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Morgan State, Central Connecticut, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.