Toledo’s third-down conversion rate with Connor Walendzak and since Connor Walendzak’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 1.8 percentage points under with Connor Walendzak and 15.1 percentage points over since Connor Walendzak’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.3% and 50.0%, a difference of 8.7%. All 3 away games were with Connor Walendzak. All 4 nonconference games were with Connor Walendzak. All 4 first-half games were with Connor Walendzak.
Connor Walendzak, running back: 424 rushing yards, 73 carries and 12 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Connor Walendzak’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Connor Walendzak
−1.8%
since Connor Walendzak’s last game
+15.1%
-20%0%
plain
41.3%
50.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Connor Walendzaksince Connor Walendzak’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 12.5% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 61.5% | 43.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 53.3% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Ball State | W | 44.4% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 21.4% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 38.5% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 50.0% | 34.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Central Connecticut has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.