Toledo’s rushing yards with Connor Walendzak and since Connor Walendzak’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 2.3 yards over with Connor Walendzak and 59.3 yards over since Connor Walendzak’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 186.4 and 205.0, a difference of 18.6. Expected was 26.5 yards higher with Connor Walendzak than since Connor Walendzak’s last game. All 3 away games were with Connor Walendzak. All 4 nonconference games were with Connor Walendzak. All 4 first-half games were with Connor Walendzak.
Connor Walendzak, running back: 424 rushing yards, 73 carries and 12 receptions in 7 games this season, 32% of Toledo’s rushing yards in those games.
One game since Connor Walendzak’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 77 | 159.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 258 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 107 | 201.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 210 | 162.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Ball State | W | 354 | 140.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 105 | 212.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 194 | 158.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 205 | 145.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Central Connecticut has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.