Toledo’s passing yards with Connor Walendzak and since Connor Walendzak’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 3.4 yards over with Connor Walendzak and 151.3 yards over since Connor Walendzak’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 273.4 and 391.0, a difference of 117.6. All 4 nonconference games were with Connor Walendzak. All 4 first-half games were with Connor Walendzak.
Connor Walendzak, running back: 424 rushing yards, 73 carries and 12 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Connor Walendzak’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
with Connor Walendzak
+3.4
since Connor Walendzak’s last game
+151.3
0100
plain
273.4
391.0
200300400
The games
with Connor Walendzaksince Connor Walendzak’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 196 | 215.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 313 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 429 | 243.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 284 | 273.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Ball State | W | 201 | 278.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 203 | 282.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 288 | 287.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 391 | 239.7 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- Central Connecticut, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.