Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Jaylen Jenkins and without Jaylen Jenkins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 4.3 percentage points over with Jaylen Jenkins and 3.0 percentage points over without Jaylen Jenkins over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 49.6% and 45.1%, a difference of 4.5%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jaylen Jenkins. All 4 games after a bye were with Jaylen Jenkins.
Jaylen Jenkins, running back: 366 rushing yards, 69 carries and 4 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaylen Jenkins
+4.3%
without Jaylen Jenkins
+3.0%
-20%0%20%
A +1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jaylen Jenkins vs without Jaylen Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
plain
49.6%
45.1%
20%40%60%
A +4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jaylen Jenkins vs without Jaylen Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jaylen Jenkinswithout Jaylen Jenkins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 60.0% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Georgia State | L | 23.1% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ South Alabama | W | 58.8% | 39.5% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | W | 43.8% | 41.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 70.0% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UTSA | W | 37.5% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 31.3% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 78.6% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38.5% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 58.8% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Marshall | L | 47.4% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 40.0% | 35.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 45.5% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 57.1% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Rice (neutral) | W | 18.2% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls, Incarnate Word have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.