Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Jaylen Jenkins and since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 9.1 percentage points over with Jaylen Jenkins and 1.2 percentage points under since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 56.4% and 40.0%, a difference of 16.4%. All 5 home games were with Jaylen Jenkins. All 5 day games were with Jaylen Jenkins. All 6 unranked opponents were with Jaylen Jenkins.
Jaylen Jenkins, running back: 196 rushing yards, 38 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaylen Jenkins
+9.1%
since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
−1.2%
0%10%20%
plain
56.4%
40.0%
40%50%60%70%
The games
with Jaylen Jenkinssince Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.