Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Davian Jackson and without Davian Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 7.4 percentage points over with Davian Jackson and 8.1 percentage points over without Davian Jackson over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 53.9% and 55.6%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 4.4 percentage points lower with Davian Jackson than without Davian Jackson. All 3 away games were with Davian Jackson. Both ranked opponents were with Davian Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Davian Jackson.
Davian Jackson, receiver: 49 receiving yards, 4 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Davian Jackson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
A −1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 60.0% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Georgia State | L | 23.1% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ South Alabama | W | 58.8% | 39.5% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | W | 43.8% | 41.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 70.0% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UTSA | W | 37.5% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 31.3% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 78.6% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38.5% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 58.8% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Marshall | L | 47.4% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 40.0% | 35.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 45.5% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 57.1% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Rice (neutral) | W | 18.2% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.7% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Davian Jackson nor without Davian Jackson: Davian Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.