Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Davian Jackson and without Davian Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 7.4 percentage points over with Davian Jackson and 8.2 percentage points over without Davian Jackson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 53.9% and 55.6%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 4.3 percentage points lower with Davian Jackson than without Davian Jackson. All 3 away games were with Davian Jackson. Both ranked opponents were with Davian Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Davian Jackson.
Davian Jackson, receiver: 49 receiving yards, 4 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season.
2 games without Davian Jackson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
A −1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.