Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Beau Sparks and without Beau Sparks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 3.7 percentage points over with Beau Sparks and 9.4 percentage points over without Beau Sparks over its last 25 games, 22 games against 1. The plain averages are 48.5% and 52.9%, a difference of 4.4%. All 10 away games were with Beau Sparks. Both neutral-site games were with Beau Sparks. All 4 night games were with Beau Sparks.
Beau Sparks, receiver: 1,713 receiving yards, 124 receptions and 13 receiving touchdowns in 24 of those 25 games.
One game without Beau Sparks is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Beau Sparks
+3.7%
without Beau Sparks
+9.4%
-20%0%20%
plain
48.5%
52.9%
20%40%60%
The games
with Beau Sparkswithout Beau Sparks
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 60.0% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Georgia State | L | 23.1% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ South Alabama | W | 58.8% | 39.5% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | W | 43.8% | 41.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 70.0% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UTSA | W | 37.5% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 31.3% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 78.6% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38.5% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 58.8% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Marshall | L | 47.4% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 40.0% | 35.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 45.5% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 57.1% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Rice (neutral) | W | 18.2% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.7% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Nicholls, Incarnate Word have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.