Texas State’s third-down conversion rate with Beau Sparks and without Beau Sparks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 7.3 percentage points over with Beau Sparks and 9.4 percentage points over without Beau Sparks in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.5% and 52.9%, a difference of 1.6%. All 3 away games were with Beau Sparks. All 3 night games were with Beau Sparks. Both ranked opponents were with Beau Sparks.
Beau Sparks, receiver: 402 receiving yards, 30 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Beau Sparks is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Beau Sparks
+7.3%
without Beau Sparks
+9.4%
0%10%20%
plain
54.5%
52.9%
40%50%60%70%
The games
with Beau Sparkswithout Beau Sparks
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 57.1% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 52.9% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 60.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 42.1% | 49.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 55.6% | 51.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 55.6% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 40.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.