Texas State’s points of margin with Jaylen Jenkins and since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 2.7 points under with Jaylen Jenkins and 15.8 points over since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 7.1 and -1.0, a difference of 8.1. Expected was 19.0 points higher with Jaylen Jenkins than since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game. All 5 home games were with Jaylen Jenkins. All 5 day games were with Jaylen Jenkins. All 6 unranked opponents were with Jaylen Jenkins.
Jaylen Jenkins, running back: 196 rushing yards, 38 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jaylen Jenkins
−2.7
since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
+15.8
-20020
plain
7.1
-1.0
-50050
The games
with Jaylen Jenkinssince Jaylen Jenkins’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | -52 | -15.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | -5 | 4.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 14 | -2.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 53 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | -2 | 11.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 39 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 3 | 6.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | -1 | -16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.