Texas State’s points of margin with Beau Sparks and without Beau Sparks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 1.5 points over with Beau Sparks and 9.1 points under without Beau Sparks in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 7.7 and -5.0, a difference of 12.7. All 3 away games were with Beau Sparks. All 3 night games were with Beau Sparks. Both ranked opponents were with Beau Sparks.
Beau Sparks, receiver: 402 receiving yards, 30 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Beau Sparks is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Beau Sparks
+1.5
without Beau Sparks
−9.1
-20020
plain
7.7
-5.0
-50050
The games
with Beau Sparkswithout Beau Sparks
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | -52 | -15.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | -5 | 4.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 14 | -2.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 53 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | -2 | 11.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 39 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 3 | 6.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | -1 | -16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.