Texas State’s passing yards with Davian Jackson and without Davian Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 39.7 yards over with Davian Jackson and 67.9 yards under without Davian Jackson over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 277.8 and 190.0, a difference of 87.8. All 3 away games were with Davian Jackson. Both ranked opponents were with Davian Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Davian Jackson.
Davian Jackson, receiver: 49 receiving yards, 4 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Davian Jackson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +107.5 difference in passing yards over expected with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Davian Jackson and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +87.8 difference in passing yards with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 437 | 237.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Georgia State | L | 302 | 235.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ South Alabama | W | 248 | 275.7 | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | W | 307 | 293.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 214 | 252.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UTSA | W | 286 | 231.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 184 | 225.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 194 | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 230 | 257.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 248 | 228.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Marshall | L | 444 | 255.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 230 | 222.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisiana | L | 360 | 240.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 192 | 272.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 201 | 270.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 281 | 225.6 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Rice (neutral) | W | 196 | 254.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 188 | 166.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 192 | 259.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | W | 268 | 246.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 320 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 372 | 230.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 213 | 281.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 167 | 234.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 327 | 246.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Davian Jackson nor without Davian Jackson: Davian Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.