Texas State’s carries with Davian Jackson and without Davian Jackson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 4.4 carries over with Davian Jackson and 0.7 carries over without Davian Jackson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 44.3 and 42.0, a difference of 2.3. All 3 away games were with Davian Jackson. Both ranked opponents were with Davian Jackson. All 4 nonconference games were with Davian Jackson.
Davian Jackson, receiver: 49 receiving yards, 4 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season, 25% of Texas State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Davian Jackson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +3.7 difference in carries over expected with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
A +2.3 difference in carries with Davian Jackson vs without Davian Jackson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 41 | 37.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 50 | 39.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 48 | 41.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 58 | 44.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 53 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 31 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 24 | 35.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.