Texas State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas State was 5.0 points over at home and 0.1 points over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 44.8 and 27.0, a difference of 17.8. Both ranked opponents were away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.0
away
+0.1
-1001020
A +4.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
44.8
27.0
204060
A +17.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 7 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 26 | 35.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 49 | 36.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 63 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 29 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 66 | 42.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 20 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 45 | 24.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.