Texas A&M’s pass attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Texas A&M’s game on Sep 5, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 3.7 pass attempts under in a conference game and 7.3 pass attempts over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 8. The plain averages are 26.0 and 37.1, a difference of 11.1.
Texas A&M’s −11.0 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 131st of the 132 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 5, 2026.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −11.0 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −11.1 difference in pass attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2024 | @ Florida | W | 17 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | W | 29 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | vs Arkansas (neutral) | W | 22 | 28.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs Missouri | W | 22 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 25 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 20 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | 28 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 42 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 35 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 23 | 29.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 42 | 28.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 36 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 34 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 37 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 22 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 23 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 26 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @LSU | W | 21 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Missouri | W | 29 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 39 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 36 | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 32 | 33.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 40 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 38 | 28.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Samford has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 5.