Texas A&M’s pass attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 1.2 pass attempts under in a conference game and 6.2 pass attempts over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 29.1 and 35.5, a difference of 6.4. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Texas A&M’s −7.4 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 130th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −7.4 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 14 times in 100.
A −6.4 difference in pass attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 42 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 35 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 23 | 29.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 42 | 28.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 36 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 34 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 37 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 22 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 23 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 26 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ LSU | W | 21 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 29 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 39 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 36 | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 32 | 33.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 40 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 38 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 25 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 49 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 27 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 19 | 30.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Missouri | L | 39 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 25 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 21 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Samford, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.