Tennessee’s third-down conversion rate with Javin Gordon and without Javin Gordon
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 9.3 percentage points over with Javin Gordon and 10.0 percentage points under without Javin Gordon over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 45.6% and 29.3%, a difference of 16.3%.
Javin Gordon, running back: 120 rushing yards, 26 carries and 3 receptions in 4 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Javin Gordon
+9.3%
without Javin Gordon
−10.0%
-10%0%10%
A +19.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Javin Gordon and it comes up 5 times in 100.
plain
45.6%
29.3%
30%40%50%
A +16.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Javin Gordon and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with Javin Gordonwithout Javin Gordon
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 55.6% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UTEP | W | 50.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 73.3% | 44.8% | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 37.5% | 40.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 58.3% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsGeorgia | L | 41.7% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 35.7% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 22.2% | 50.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 38.5% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 53.8% | 35.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 27.3% | 49.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 69.2% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 63.2% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 57.1% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40.0% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 25.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 21.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 30.8% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 40.0% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 40.0% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javin Gordon nor without Javin Gordon: Javin Gordon had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.