Tennessee’s third-down conversion rate with George MacIntyre and without George MacIntyre
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 4.8 percentage points under with George MacIntyre and 3.2 percentage points over without George MacIntyre over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 33.0% and 47.2%, a difference of 14.2%. Both neutral-site games were without George MacIntyre. All 6 night games were without George MacIntyre. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without George MacIntyre.
George MacIntyre, quarterback: 797 passing yards, 112 pass attempts and 76 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
A −14.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with George MacIntyre and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 55.6% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UTEP | W | 50.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 73.3% | 44.8% | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 37.5% | 40.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 58.3% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsGeorgia | L | 41.7% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 53.8% | 47.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 35.7% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 22.2% | 50.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 38.5% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 53.8% | 35.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 27.3% | 49.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 69.2% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 63.2% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 57.1% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40.0% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 25.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 21.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 30.8% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 40.0% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 40.0% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- East Tennessee State, Furman have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with George MacIntyre nor without George MacIntyre: George MacIntyre had no game for the team that season, and sit out.