Tennessee’s third-down conversion rate with George MacIntyre and without George MacIntyre
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 4.8 percentage points under with George MacIntyre and 2.4 percentage points over without George MacIntyre in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 33.0% and 41.9%, a difference of 8.8%. Both night games were without George MacIntyre. All 3 nonconference games were without George MacIntyre. All 4 first-half games were without George MacIntyre.
George MacIntyre, quarterback: 728 passing yards, 103 pass attempts and 69 completions in 6 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −7.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
A −8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 57.1% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40.0% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 25.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 21.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 30.8% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Alabama | W | 40.0% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 40.0% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.