Tennessee’s points with George MacIntyre and without George MacIntyre
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 2.1 points under with George MacIntyre and 2.9 points over without George MacIntyre over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 24.5 and 39.8, a difference of 15.3. Both neutral-site games were without George MacIntyre. All 6 night games were without George MacIntyre. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without George MacIntyre.
George MacIntyre, quarterback: 797 passing yards, 112 pass attempts and 76 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
A −5.0 difference in points over expected with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
A −15.3 difference in points with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with George MacIntyre and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 17 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UTEP | W | 56 | 43.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 36 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 17 | 18.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 45 | 39.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 72 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsGeorgia | L | 41 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 56 | 45.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 41 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 34 | 42.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 20 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 56 | 28.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 27 | 26.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 42 | 45.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 31 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 24 | 36.4 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 28 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 45 | 34.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 42 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 17 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 24 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 24 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 26 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 24 | 27.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- East Tennessee State, Furman have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with George MacIntyre nor without George MacIntyre: George MacIntyre had no game for the team that season, and sit out.