Tennessee’s points of margin with Javin Gordon and without Javin Gordon
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 8.0 points over with Javin Gordon and 1.9 points under without Javin Gordon over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 20.3 and 11.8, a difference of 8.5. Expected was 10.3 points lower with Javin Gordon than without Javin Gordon.
Javin Gordon, running back: 120 rushing yards, 26 carries and 3 receptions in 4 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Javin Gordon
+8.0
without Javin Gordon
−1.9
01020
A +9.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.3
11.8
02040
A +8.5 difference in points of margin with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Javin Gordonwithout Javin Gordon
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | -14 | -1.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UTEP | W | 56 | 38.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 13 | 6.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | -25 | -10.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 19 | 21.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsGeorgia | L | -3 | -5.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 32 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 7 | 5.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 3 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | -17 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 22 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | -6 | -1.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 33 | 29.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 20 | -1.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | -21 | -1.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | -2 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 21 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 33 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | -3 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 10 | 10.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 7 | 13.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 16 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | -3 | -2.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javin Gordon nor without Javin Gordon: Javin Gordon had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.