Putting Up Numbers· college football

Tennessee’s passing yards with Javin Gordon and without Javin Gordon

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 29.3 yards under with Javin Gordon and 21.4 yards under without Javin Gordon in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 197.5 and 165.5, a difference of 32.0.

Javin Gordon, running back: 120 rushing yards, 26 carries and 3 receptions in 4 games this season.

passing yards a game over expected

A −7.9 difference in passing yards over expected with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.

A +32.0 difference in passing yards with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Javin Gordonwithout Javin Gordon
Tennessee’s games, 2026, each marked with Javin Gordon or without Javin Gordon
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsFurmanW309—
Sep 12, 2026@Georgia TechW148178.5
Sep 19, 2026vsKennesaw StateW178217.6
Sep 26, 2026vsTexasL151140.9
Oct 3, 2026vsAuburnW86213.5
Oct 10, 2026@ArkansasW247175.5
Oct 17, 2026vsAlabamaW197190.1
Oct 24, 2026@South CarolinaL136200.2

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Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.