Putting Up Numbers· college football

Tennessee’s pass attempts with Javin Gordon and without Javin Gordon

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 2.0 pass attempts under with Javin Gordon and 1.8 pass attempts under without Javin Gordon in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.5 and 26.3, a difference of 0.8. Expected was 1.1 pass attempts lower with Javin Gordon than without Javin Gordon.

Javin Gordon, running back: 120 rushing yards, 26 carries and 3 receptions in 4 games this season.

pass attempts a game over expected

A −0.2 difference in pass attempts over expected with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.

A −0.8 difference in pass attempts with Javin Gordon vs without Javin Gordon is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Javin Gordonwithout Javin Gordon
Tennessee’s games, 2026, each marked with Javin Gordon or without Javin Gordon
SideDateGameResultpass attemptsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsFurmanW27—
Sep 12, 2026@Georgia TechW2126.2
Sep 19, 2026vsKennesaw StateW2630.5
Sep 26, 2026vsTexasL3226.8
Oct 3, 2026vsAuburnW1831.1
Oct 10, 2026@ArkansasW2924.0
Oct 17, 2026vsAlabamaW3124.7
Oct 24, 2026@South CarolinaL2330.2

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Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.