Tennessee’s carries with George MacIntyre and without George MacIntyre
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 3.9 carries over with George MacIntyre and 1.6 carries over without George MacIntyre in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 42.3 and 44.0, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 3.4 carries lower with George MacIntyre than without George MacIntyre. Both night games were without George MacIntyre. All 3 nonconference games were without George MacIntyre. All 4 first-half games were without George MacIntyre.
George MacIntyre, quarterback: 728 passing yards, 103 pass attempts and 69 completions in 6 games this season, 5% of Tennessee’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +2.3 difference in carries over expected with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
A −1.8 difference in carries with George MacIntyre vs without George MacIntyre is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 45 | 44.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 41 | 43.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 44 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 48 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 32 | 39.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Alabama | W | 39 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 50 | 34.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Furman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.