Stanford’s third-down conversion rate with Caden High and without Caden High
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Stanford was 7.8 percentage points under with Caden High and 7.3 percentage points over without Caden High in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.2% and 43.8%, a difference of 14.6%. All 4 away games were with Caden High. All 3 night games were with Caden High. Both ranked opponents were with Caden High.
Caden High, receiver: 419 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 8 games this season.
One game without Caden High is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Caden High
−7.8%
without Caden High
+7.3%
-10%0%
plain
29.2%
43.8%
20%30%40%
The games
with Caden Highwithout Caden High
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 43.8% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 33.3% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 18.2% | 31.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 35.7% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 35.3% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 18.2% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsEElon | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 38.5% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 12.5% | 31.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Elon has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 9 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.