Stanford’s points of margin with Caden High and without Caden High
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Stanford was 3.3 points under with Caden High and 9.2 points over without Caden High over its last 25 games, 19 games against 1. The plain averages are -14.4 and 10.0, a difference of 24.4. All 10 away games were with Caden High. All 9 night games were with Caden High. All 4 ranked opponents were with Caden High.
Caden High, receiver: 833 receiving yards, 70 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 20 of those 25 games.
One game without Caden High is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Caden High
−3.3
without Caden High
+9.2
-20020
plain
-14.4
10.0
-500
The games
with Caden Highwithout Caden High
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ NC State | L | -31 | -2.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Louisville | W | 3 | -21.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ California | L | -3 | -11.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ San Jose State | L | -3 | -0.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -3 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ BYU | L | -24 | -20.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 10 | 6.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | -28 | -13.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsSan Jose State | W | 1 | 15.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ SMU | L | -24 | -16.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 7 | -13.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -35 | -29.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | -15 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ North Carolina | L | -5 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsCalifornia | W | 21 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | -29 | -26.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsHawaii | W | 10 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsMiami (FL) | L | -39 | -29.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Duke | L | -28 | -20.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 7 | -2.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | -54 | -25.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Notre Dame | L | -51 | -34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsEElon | W | 27 | — | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 3 | -6.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Louisville | L | -28 | -24.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Elon has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 12 of these 21 games; in the other 9 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Caden High nor without Caden High: Caden High had no game for the team that season, and sit out.