Stanford’s carries with Caden High and without Caden High
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Stanford was 3.6 carries under with Caden High and 6.0 carries over without Caden High in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.4 and 38.0, a difference of 9.6. All 4 away games were with Caden High. All 3 night games were with Caden High. Both ranked opponents were with Caden High.
Caden High, receiver: 419 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 8 games this season, 0% of Stanford’s carries in those games.
One game without Caden High is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Caden High
−3.6
without Caden High
+6.0
-10-505
plain
28.4
38.0
20253035
The games
with Caden Highwithout Caden High
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 38 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 23 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 22 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 35 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 34 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 20 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsEElon | W | 33 | — | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 30 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 30 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Elon has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 9 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.