Putting Up Numbers· college football

South Florida’s total yards with Cameron Seldon and without Cameron Seldon

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 19.9 yards under with Cameron Seldon and 120.8 yards under without Cameron Seldon over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 330.7 and 217.0, a difference of 113.7. All 5 home games were with Cameron Seldon. All 5 night games were with Cameron Seldon. All 4 conference games were with Cameron Seldon.

Cameron Seldon, running back: 19 rushing yards, 5 carries and 14 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.

One game without Cameron Seldon is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Cameron Seldonwithout Cameron Seldon
South Florida’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Cameron Seldon or without Cameron Seldon
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 16, 2024@CharlotteW551402.5
Nov 23, 2024vsTulsaW715482.3
Nov 30, 2024@RiceL431361.7
Dec 24, 2024vsSan Jose State (neutral)W291432.8
Aug 28, 2025vsBoise StateW372454.1
Sep 6, 2025@FloridaW391437.0
Sep 13, 2025@Miami (FL)L332359.4
Sep 20, 2025vsSSouth Carolina StateW504—
Oct 3, 2025vsCharlotteW631544.5
Oct 10, 2025@North TexasW582500.2
Oct 18, 2025vsFlorida AtlanticW522535.7
Oct 25, 2025@MemphisL564433.0
Nov 6, 2025vsUTSAW472472.5
Nov 15, 2025@NavyL556427.4
Nov 22, 2025@UABW544477.0
Nov 29, 2025vsRiceW555481.4
Dec 17, 2025vsOld Dominion (neutral)L334460.9
Sep 5, 2026vsFlorida InternationalW208285.3
Sep 12, 2026@ArmyW373306.7
Sep 19, 2026vsDDelaware StateW612—
Sep 26, 2026@Bowling GreenW217337.8
Oct 3, 2026vsTempleL319352.3
Oct 8, 2026@UTSAL294282.9
Oct 17, 2026vsKent StateW272332.6
Oct 31, 2026vsUABW237262.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cameron Seldon nor without Cameron Seldon: Cameron Seldon had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.