South Florida’s total yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through South Florida’s game on Oct 31, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 68.2 yards over in a conference game and 85.3 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 489.7 and 353.3, a difference of 136.4. Both neutral-site games were in a nonconference game. All 3 ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
South Florida’s +153.6 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 31, 2026.
total yards a game over expected
A +153.6 difference in total yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +136.4 difference in total yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 551 | 402.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Tulsa | W | 715 | 482.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Rice | L | 431 | 361.7 | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs San Jose State (neutral) | W | 291 | 432.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 372 | 454.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 391 | 437.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 332 | 359.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 504 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsCharlotte | W | 631 | 544.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ North Texas | W | 582 | 500.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 522 | 535.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 564 | 433.0 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 472 | 472.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 556 | 427.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 544 | 477.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsRice | W | 555 | 481.4 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Old Dominion (neutral) | L | 334 | 460.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 208 | 285.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 373 | 306.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 612 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 217 | 337.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 319 | 352.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 294 | 282.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 272 | 332.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 237 | 262.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- South Carolina State, Delaware State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 31.