South Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Michael Van Buren Jr. and since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 1.0 percentage points under with Michael Van Buren Jr. and 0.0 percentage points over since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.6% and 40.0%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 1.6 percentage points lower with Michael Van Buren Jr. than since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game. All 3 away games were with Michael Van Buren Jr.. All 5 night games were with Michael Van Buren Jr.. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Van Buren Jr..
Michael Van Buren Jr., quarterback: 1,273 passing yards, 181 pass attempts and 116 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Tulsa | W | 58.8% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Rice | L | 33.3% | 38.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs San Jose State (neutral) | W | 41.2% | 42.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 35.7% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 37.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 36.8% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsCharlotte | W | 52.9% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ North Texas | W | 63.6% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 50.0% | 48.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 66.7% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 25.0% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 60.0% | 45.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsRice | W | 58.3% | 43.9% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Old Dominion (neutral) | L | 31.3% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 38.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 54.5% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 30.0% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 46.7% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 27.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 27.3% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Michael Van Buren Jr. nor since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game: Michael Van Buren Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.