South Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Kromenhoek and without Luke Kromenhoek
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 0.0 percentage points over with Luke Kromenhoek and 1.0 percentage points under without Luke Kromenhoek over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 40.0% and 41.6%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 1.6 percentage points higher with Luke Kromenhoek than without Luke Kromenhoek. All 3 away games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 5 night games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 4 nonconference games were without Luke Kromenhoek.
Luke Kromenhoek, quarterback: 60 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 9 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game with Luke Kromenhoek is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Kromenhoek
+0.0%
without Luke Kromenhoek
−1.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
40.0%
41.6%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Luke Kromenhoekwithout Luke Kromenhoek
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Tulsa | W | 58.8% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Rice | L | 33.3% | 38.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs San Jose State (neutral) | W | 41.2% | 42.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 35.7% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 37.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 36.8% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsCharlotte | W | 52.9% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ North Texas | W | 63.6% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 50.0% | 48.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 66.7% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 25.0% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 60.0% | 45.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsRice | W | 58.3% | 43.9% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Old Dominion (neutral) | L | 31.3% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 38.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 54.5% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 30.0% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 46.7% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 27.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 27.3% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Kromenhoek nor without Luke Kromenhoek: Luke Kromenhoek had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.