South Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Alvon Isaac and without Alvon Isaac
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 1.9 percentage points over with Alvon Isaac and 1.5 percentage points over without Alvon Isaac over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 45.4% and 40.7%, a difference of 4.7%. All 3 ranked opponents were with Alvon Isaac. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Alvon Isaac. All 5 games while ranked were with Alvon Isaac.
Alvon Isaac, running back: 422 rushing yards, 83 carries and 16 receptions in 17 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Alvon Isaac vs without Alvon Isaac is about what you’d expect.
A +4.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Alvon Isaac vs without Alvon Isaac is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Tulsa | W | 58.8% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Rice | L | 33.3% | 38.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs San Jose State (neutral) | W | 41.2% | 42.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 35.7% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 37.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 36.8% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsCharlotte | W | 52.9% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ North Texas | W | 63.6% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 50.0% | 48.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 66.7% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 25.0% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 60.0% | 45.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsRice | W | 58.3% | 43.9% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Old Dominion (neutral) | L | 31.3% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 38.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 54.5% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 30.0% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 46.7% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 27.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 27.3% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- South Carolina State, Delaware State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.