South Florida’s points with Michael Van Buren Jr. and since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 2.8 points under with Michael Van Buren Jr. and 7.9 points over since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 26.6 and 30.0, a difference of 3.4. All 3 away games were with Michael Van Buren Jr.. All 5 night games were with Michael Van Buren Jr.. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Van Buren Jr..
Michael Van Buren Jr., quarterback: 1,273 passing yards, 181 pass attempts and 116 completions in 8 games this season.
One game since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Michael Van Buren Jr.
−2.8
since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game
+7.9
-100
plain
26.6
30.0
2040
The games
with Michael Van Buren Jr.since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 19 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 28 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 14 | 28.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 13 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 24 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 29 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 30 | 22.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.