South Florida’s points of margin with Luke Kromenhoek and without Luke Kromenhoek
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 14.2 points over with Luke Kromenhoek and 0.3 points under without Luke Kromenhoek in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 20.0 and 11.4, a difference of 8.6. All 3 away games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 5 night games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 4 nonconference games were without Luke Kromenhoek.
Luke Kromenhoek, quarterback: 60 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 9 completions in 6 games this season.
One game with Luke Kromenhoek is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Luke Kromenhoek
+14.2
without Luke Kromenhoek
−0.3
-10010
plain
20.0
11.4
02040
The games
with Luke Kromenhoekwithout Luke Kromenhoek
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 10 | 9.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 4 | -6.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 8 | 13.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | -4 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | -7 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 27 | 17.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 20 | 5.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.