South Florida’s points allowed with Luke Kromenhoek and without Luke Kromenhoek
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Florida was 7.3 points under with Luke Kromenhoek and 3.6 points under without Luke Kromenhoek over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 10.0 and 15.1, a difference of 5.1. All 3 away games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 5 night games were without Luke Kromenhoek. All 4 nonconference games were without Luke Kromenhoek.
Luke Kromenhoek, quarterback: 60 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 9 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game with Luke Kromenhoek is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Luke Kromenhoek
−7.3
without Luke Kromenhoek
−3.6
-10-505
plain
10.0
15.1
102030
The games
with Luke Kromenhoekwithout Luke Kromenhoek
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 24 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Tulsa | W | 30 | 20.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Rice | L | 35 | 23.3 | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs San Jose State (neutral) | W | 39 | 28.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 7 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 16 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 49 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 14 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsCharlotte | W | 26 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ North Texas | W | 36 | 40.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 13 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 34 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 23 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 41 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 18 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsRice | W | 3 | 13.0 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Old Dominion (neutral) | L | 24 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 9 | 14.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Army | W | 24 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsDDelaware State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 6 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Temple | L | 17 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 2 | 11.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 10 | 17.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Kromenhoek nor without Luke Kromenhoek: Luke Kromenhoek had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.