South Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with Jared Hollins and without Jared Hollins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Alabama was 2.8 percentage points under with Jared Hollins and 3.5 percentage points over without Jared Hollins over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 36.9% and 43.4%, a difference of 6.5%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Jared Hollins.
Jared Hollins, quarterback: 1,296 passing yards, 172 pass attempts and 94 completions in 11 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jared Hollins
−2.8%
without Jared Hollins
+3.5%
0%20%
A −6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.9%
43.4%
40%60%
A −6.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jared Hollinswithout Jared Hollins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 50.0% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 36.4% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 30.0% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 27.3% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 42.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 43.8% | 32.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 44.4% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 36.8% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | L | 28.6% | 45.2% | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 57.1% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsLouisiana | L | 53.3% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 46.7% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsSouthern Miss | W | 46.7% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 38.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 43.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Tulane | L | 62.5% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 53.3% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 46.2% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Arkansas State | W | 30.0% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 22.2% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 42.9% | 38.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Morgan State, S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Jared Hollins nor without Jared Hollins: Jared Hollins had no game for the team that season, and sit out.