South Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with Jared Hollins and without Jared Hollins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Alabama was 2.8 percentage points under with Jared Hollins and 22.3 percentage points over without Jared Hollins in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.9% and 53.1%, a difference of 16.3%. Both day games were with Jared Hollins. All 4 conference games were with Jared Hollins. Both games after a bye were with Jared Hollins.
Jared Hollins, quarterback: 1,195 passing yards, 156 pass attempts and 82 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Jared Hollins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −16.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 43.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 62.5% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 53.3% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 46.2% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | W | 30.0% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 22.2% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 42.9% | 38.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.