South Alabama’s points of margin with Jared Hollins and without Jared Hollins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Alabama was 0.9 points under with Jared Hollins and 1.1 points over without Jared Hollins in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -2.8 and 10.5, a difference of 13.3. Both day games were with Jared Hollins. All 4 conference games were with Jared Hollins. Both games after a bye were with Jared Hollins.
Jared Hollins, quarterback: 1,195 passing yards, 156 pass attempts and 82 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Jared Hollins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jared Hollins
−0.9
without Jared Hollins
+1.1
-10010
plain
-2.8
10.5
-20020
A −13.3 difference in points of margin with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jared Hollinswithout Jared Hollins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | -4 | -5.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 5 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | -24 | -27.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 17 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | W | 7 | -6.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | -7 | 5.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | -15 | -3.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- S E Louisiana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.