South Alabama’s points of margin with Bishop Davenport and without Bishop Davenport
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Alabama was 0.5 points under with Bishop Davenport and 1.3 points under without Bishop Davenport over its last 25 games, 13 games against 10. The plain averages are -1.3 and -0.5, a difference of 0.8. Expected was 5.0 points lower with Bishop Davenport than without Bishop Davenport. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Bishop Davenport.
Bishop Davenport, quarterback: 2,851 passing yards, 386 pass attempts and 261 completions in 19 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Bishop Davenport vs without Bishop Davenport is about what you’d expect.
A −0.8 difference in points of margin with Bishop Davenport vs without Bishop Davenport is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern | L | -4 | 5.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 2 | -3.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 21 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | -7 | -2.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | W | 7 | 7.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | -2 | -15.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | -16 | -26.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | -18 | 10.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | -14 | -27.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Troy | L | -7 | -6.6 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | L | -1 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 7 | 4.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsLouisiana | L | -9 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 12 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsSouthern Miss | W | 7 | -0.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Texas State | L | -23 | -10.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Tulane | L | -4 | -5.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 5 | 5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | -24 | -27.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 17 | 15.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Arkansas State | W | 7 | -6.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | -7 | 5.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | -15 | -3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Morgan State, S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.