South Alabama’s carries with Jared Hollins and without Jared Hollins
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Alabama was 4.1 carries over with Jared Hollins and 1.8 carries over without Jared Hollins over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 43.0 and 44.7, a difference of 1.7. Expected was 3.1 carries lower with Jared Hollins than without Jared Hollins. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Jared Hollins.
Jared Hollins, quarterback: 1,296 passing yards, 172 pass attempts and 94 completions in 11 of those 25 games, 10% of South Alabama’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +2.3 difference in carries over expected with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
A −1.7 difference in carries with Jared Hollins vs without Jared Hollins is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 36 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 27 | 33.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 27 | 37.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Texas State | L | 27 | 35.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Western Michigan (neutral) | W | 35 | 34.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 41 | 37.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 42 | 37.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 44 | 43.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 45 | 44.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 56 | 40.6 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | L | 36 | 43.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 45 | 42.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsLouisiana | L | 36 | 44.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 53 | 41.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsSouthern Miss | W | 50 | 43.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Texas State | L | 38 | 41.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Tulane | L | 40 | 43.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 50 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 30 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 46 | 43.5 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Arkansas State | W | 46 | 39.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 42 | 39.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 44 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Morgan State, S E Louisiana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Jared Hollins nor without Jared Hollins: Jared Hollins had no game for the team that season, and sit out.