San Jose State’s penalty yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through San Jose State’s game on Aug 29, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 13.6 yards over in a conference game and 19.0 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 9. The plain averages are 67.7 and 38.6, a difference of 29.1. All 8 games without Jabari Bates were in a conference game.
San Jose State’s +32.6 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 132 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Aug 29, 2026.
penalty yards a game over expected
A +32.6 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +29.1 difference in penalty yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2024 | @ Air Force | W | 47 | 50.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40 | 58.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2024 | @ Washington State | L | 15 | 59.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 90 | 52.0 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | @ Colorado State | L | 112 | 53.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs Wyoming | W | 60 | 54.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Fresno State | L | 70 | 58.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Oregon State | W | 83 | 51.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 42 | 55.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 95 | 53.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 45 | 60.7 | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | 30 | 66.3 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 39 | 53.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 15 | 48.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 50 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 54 | 55.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 83 | 54.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Wyoming | L | 80 | 57.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 65 | 55.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 48 | 57.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsAir Force | L | 70 | 46.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Nevada | L | 64 | 54.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 50 | 50.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFresno State | L | 40 | 57.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 15 | 53.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Aug 29.