San Jose State’s penalty yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 3.2 yards over in a conference game and 12.5 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 58.1 and 44.4, a difference of 13.7. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 9 games without Jabari Bates were in a conference game.
San Jose State’s +15.7 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 11th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
penalty yards a game over expected
A +15.7 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
A +13.7 difference in penalty yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 42 | 55.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 95 | 53.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 45 | 60.7 | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | 30 | 66.3 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 39 | 53.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 15 | 48.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 50 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 54 | 55.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 83 | 54.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | 80 | 57.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 65 | 55.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 48 | 57.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 70 | 46.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 64 | 54.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 50 | 50.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 40 | 57.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 15 | 53.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 100 | 51.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 41 | 49.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 65 | 57.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 15 | 56.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 40 | 53.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 74 | 56.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 40 | 56.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho, Cal Poly have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.