San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Lucky Sutton and without Lucky Sutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 2.3 percentage points under with Lucky Sutton and 6.6 percentage points under without Lucky Sutton over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 34.0% and 29.7%, a difference of 4.2%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Lucky Sutton. Both games after a bye were with Lucky Sutton.
Lucky Sutton, running back: 1,787 rushing yards, 358 carries and 6 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Lucky Sutton
−2.3%
without Lucky Sutton
−6.6%
-20%0%20%
A +4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
plain
34.0%
29.7%
20%40%60%
A +4.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Lucky Suttonwithout Lucky Sutton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 25.0% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 57.1% | 35.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 47.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 15.4% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 27.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 33.3% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 30.0% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 36.4% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 16.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 14.3% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 25.0% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 35.7% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 31.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.