San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Lucky Sutton and without Lucky Sutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 2.2 percentage points over with Lucky Sutton and 15.5 percentage points under without Lucky Sutton in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 39.7% and 22.2%, a difference of 17.5%.
Lucky Sutton, running back: 473 rushing yards, 103 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
3 games without Lucky Sutton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Lucky Sutton
+2.2%
without Lucky Sutton
−15.5%
-20%0%20%
A +17.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.7%
22.2%
20%40%60%
A +17.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Lucky Suttonwithout Lucky Sutton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.