San Diego State’s points allowed with Lucky Sutton and without Lucky Sutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 1.7 points over with Lucky Sutton and 6.4 points over without Lucky Sutton in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.3 and 40.3, a difference of 9.0.
Lucky Sutton, running back: 473 rushing yards, 103 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
3 games without Lucky Sutton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Lucky Sutton
+1.7
without Lucky Sutton
+6.4
020
A −4.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
plain
31.3
40.3
204060
A −9.0 difference in points allowed with Lucky Sutton vs without Lucky Sutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Lucky Suttonwithout Lucky Sutton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 20 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 28 | 39.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 26 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 41 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 29 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 66 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 23 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 56 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 20 | 25.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.