Rice’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 7.1 points under at home and 1.4 points over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 20.8 and 21.3, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 4.6 points higher at home than away.
points a game over expected
at home
−7.1
away
+1.4
-1001020
A −8.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.8
21.3
02040
A −0.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 0 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 21 | 21.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 24 | 16.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 14 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 12 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 17 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Florida Atlantic | L | 49 | 25.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.